What Are the Impacts of the United States Withdrawing From the Paris Agreement?

The Trump Administration has made some bold moves, one of which is the removal of the United States from the Paris Agreement, an international treaty that attempts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit rising global temperatures. Within the agreement, any withdrawal takes one year, so the U.S. will be officially out of the Paris Agreement in January 2026 [1].

 

[1] Michael Goldberg & Dave McGlinchey, Five Things to Know About the U.S. Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, Woodwell Climate Research Center (Jan. 30, 2025), https://www.woodwellclimate.org/us-withdrawal-paris-agreement/.

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What is the Paris Agreement?

​Initially adopted by 196 Parties at the UN Climate Change Conference 21 (COP 21) in Paris, France, the treaty was

formally enacted in November 2016. The mission was to keep global temperature increases below 2°C from pre-industrial levels, and attempt to maintain temperatures around 1.5°C from pre-industrial levels [2]. In short, putting a limit on the increase of the world’s average temperature based on conditions prior to growing industrialization. Once cities started to develop and implement factories, pollution and CO2 levels increased substantially in the atmosphere, therefore references to the Industrial Revolution are relevant to climate change. Amplified levels of CO2 cause temperatures to rise, presenting the phenomenon of global warming. 1.5°C and 2°C are commonly discussed figures because that is the tipping point that climate scientists, like Sir David King, say will lead to extreme weather [3]. Consequences of increasing temperatures range from rising sea levels and more severe heatwaves, to floods, storms, melting glaciers, and increased wildfires. All these events will impact humans and the civilizations we have built. By the year 2100, scientists and world leaders aspire to keep global temperatures below 1.5°C from pre-industrial levels.

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[2] The Paris Agreement, UNFCCC, https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement (last visited Mar. 12, 2025).

[3] Martha Henriques, Climate Change: The 1.5C Threshold Explained, BBC (Feb. 8, 2024), https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20231130-climate-crisis-the-15c-global-warming-threshold-explained.

 

Global Impact of the United States Withdrawing

​In the U.S., the Paris Agreement is like a ping-pong match. Under one president we rejoin and once another

administration takes power, we withdraw. Essentially, the U.S. is in and out of the agreement every four years. The Obama Administration formally joined the Paris Agreement in September 2016, promising 3 billion USD to the Green Climate Fund [4]. When Trump’s Administration took over in 2017, he withdrew the U.S. from the treaty. This sent a message on the global stage that the U.S., a top CO2 emitter, is not mindful of its environmental impact, and can make unpredictable changes at any time [5].  The withdrawal additionally strains diplomatic ties with key allies that are committed to the Paris Agreement and fighting the climate crisis. The departure halted financial contributions to climate finance that the Obama Administration promised. These funds were intended to help developing nations with mitigation and adaptation efforts as they feel the effects of climate change more and contribute less to the problem [5].  In early 2021 the Biden Administration rejoined the Paris Agreement, where we remained until Trump took office again in 2025.​

The Trump Administration and proponents of the withdrawal argued that the Paris Agreement placed

disproportionate economic burdens on the U.S., potentially harming domestic industries, while allowing other countries, particularly developing nations, to continue emitting high levels of greenhouse gases. They contended that this disadvantaged the U.S., as other nations can grow their economies without facing the same environmental restrictions [6]. This move has been criticized for undermining global climate efforts and perpetuating the climate crisis. Since the U.S. is the second largest CO2 emitter (highest per capita), abandoning efforts damages every other country attempting to decrease emissions [7]. It is challenging to make substantial progress if one of the top global contributors, and nation of scientific breakthroughs, does not comply with climate change relief efforts. Without the U.S. present in global climate negotiations, the movement is destabilized by not working with allies to solve the problem.

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[4] Tanya Somanader, President Obama: The United States Formally Enters the Paris Agreement, The White House (Sept. 2, 2016), https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2016/09/03/president-obama-united-states-formally-enters-paris-agreement.

[5] Nik Popli, What Happened the Last Time Trump Left the Paris Agreement, Time (Jan. 21, 2025), https://time.com/7208955/trump-paris-climate-agreement-withdraw-impact/.

[6] Id. 

[7] I. Tiseo, Global CO₂ Emissions by Country 2023, Statista (Jan. 15, 2025), https://www.statista.com/statistics/270499/co2-emissions-in-selected-countries/.

 

China Steps Up as United States Falls Behind​

While recent U.S. climate initiatives have shifted priorities, China has increased its investments in alternative

energy resources and environmental goals. In the past few years, China has been making significant strides in renewables and gaining a reputation as a global leader in green energy [8]. Not only are they investing substantial funds in green technology and giving other countries sustainable energy solutions, but China is also setting ambitious renewable goals for the future. In contrast, The U.S. has experienced changes in climate policy that influenced its level of engagement in international solutions [9]. China has set the aspiring goal of attaining carbon neutrality by 2060, mostly through wind and solar capacity [10]. However, China still relies heavily on coal, the world’s most carbon-intensive energy source, to meet its energy needs. This utilization has raised concerns about the feasibility of China’s climate goals and the trend of its energy transition [11].

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[8] Times Union Editorial Board, Editorial: Fiddling While the World Warms, Times Union (Mar. 11, 2025), https://www.timesunion.com/opinion/article/editorial-fiddling-world-warms-20213267.php.

[9] Emily White, China’s Accelerating Green Transition, Financial Times (Sept. 25, 2024), https://www.ft.com/content/4afdd319-230f-4763-8107-d8a43308dcfc.

[10] B. Y. Chan, How China is Helping Power the World’s Green Transition, World Economic Forum (Jan. 17, 2025), https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/01/why-china-matters-to-the-worlds-green-transition/.

[11] China Could Greatly Reduce Its Reliance on Coal. It Probably Will Not., The Economist (Mar. 31, 2025), https://www.economist.com/china/2025/03/31/china-could-greatly-reduce-its-reliance-on-coal-it-probably-will-not.

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Conclusion

With the decision to step away from the Paris Agreement, effects of U.S. climate policy remain uncertain, while

other nations, including China, have expanded their endeavors. By limiting U.S. involvement in global climate efforts, there is some concern over future global energy standards and regulations, namely the question of whether the U.S. will retain or decrease its ability to influence policies. As China works with other countries on renewable energy, it enhances its global influence, specifically in areas that once relied on U.S. support. Consequently, American industries might fall behind in the fast-growing green technology market, expected to reach over $2 trillion shortly [12]. Reduced involvement in sustainability could affect the U.S.’s position in global innovation and environmental action.

The U.S.’s decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement altered its former role in the collaboration of global

climate efforts, placing the nation at risk of losing its leadership in environmental innovation. Meanwhile, China’s growing investments in renewable energy highlight the economic and diplomatic opportunities the U.S. is not currently involved in. To remain a global leader, the U.S. should take definitive action to support sustainability and re-establish its role in the fight against climate change.

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[12] Green Building Revolution Could Open $1.8 Trillion Global Market Opportunity by 2030, World Economic Forum (June 26, 2024), https://www.weforum.org/press/2024/06/green-building-revolution-could-open-1-8-trillion-global-market-opportunity-by-2030/.